Top 10 Aircraft Leasing Companies - In the past, I have covered several companies in the aircraft leasing industry, and I continue to monitor the industry closely for the long term.
Over the past 12 months, stocks in the aircraft leasing industry have been largely flat. Air Lease (NYSE: AL ) has moved higher by 10%, Fly Leasing (NYSE: FLY ) by 1.1% and shares of Aircastle (NYSE: AYR ) have declined by 6.3%. AerCap Holdings (NYSE:AER) has performed very well with a return of 15.3% during the same period.
Top 10 Aircraft Leasing Companies
I see this side move as a good opportunity to collect quality names in the industry, and this article provides a comparative analysis of the best investment options between the stocks mentioned.
Leasing Top 50 2021 Report
There are several reasons to be optimistic about the aircraft leasing industry in the long term. The main factors are as follows:
The table below provides a comparative analysis of aircraft leasing stock. The main basis of the analysis is the debt and credit measurements for the individual companies. The reason to focus on debt and related metrics is that aircraft leasing companies rely on leverage for growth. In addition, capital expenditure, fleet age and minimum lease rent (years) also provide insight into growth and cash flow visibility.
I must mention here that Aircastle and Fly Leasing have also been working to build a modern fleet and the credit metrics are healthy even for these companies. Relatively speaking, however, Air Lease and AerCap are attractive.
Over the past 12 months, airline leasing stocks haven't produced impressive returns, but these two companies have outperformed their peers. I expect this trend to continue.
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The aircraft leasing industry is expected to see steady growth in the coming years as global air traffic increases and airlines increasingly choose to lease aircraft over outright purchase.
Companies such as Air Lease and AerCap Holdings are well positioned to benefit from this growth with continued new aircraft deliveries over the next 3-5 years. I see the current level in this stock as a good opportunity to consider a new exposure.
Analysts interested in multiple asset classes for portfolio diversification. My areas of expertise include equities, precious metals, commodities and cryptocurrencies. Special interest and love for economics.
Disclosure: I/we do not have any positions in any of the stocks mentioned, and we have no plans to initiate any positions in the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it reflects my own opinion. I received no compensation for it (other than Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any of the companies whose shares are mentioned in this article.
Leasing Firms Buy More Planes Than Ailing Airlines For First Time
If you have an ad blocker enabled, you may be prevented from continuing. Please disable your ad blocker and reload. While the numbers themselves show the influence of lessees among both major carriers and LCCs (low cost carriers), the growth in lease volumes has been remarkable.
Currently the top 25 lessors (airlines/airline groups listed above) lease nearly 4,750 aircraft; about 50% of the combined fleet (in most LCC cases, 90-100%). That number has increased by 60% in the last 5 years alone.
Growth has been driven by expansion among LCCs, notably IndiGo, Lion Air, the AirAsia group and Wizz Air (each financing most or all of the new aircraft deliveries own through sale and leaseback (SLB), but also with several major airlines. more aircraft than 5 years ago Delta, Qatar, British Airways and more are in the news, HNA Group, among those growing more.
I posted last week about net growth among lessors leasing to these airlines and more; it is clear that each party is leading an overall increase in rental activity.
Aviation Weekly: News And Highlights 27 December
Although the number of new SLBs may see a temporary decrease due to a slowdown in deliveries in 2021, growth in the leased fleet is almost inevitable, also boosted by the increase in SLBs of used aircraft , which we will start seeing in 2020.
The leasing percentage of the world's passenger jet fleet (excluding regional jets) will soon exceed 50% for the first time (nb. by units rather than value). After an increase of almost 2 percentage points in 2020, this is an important landmark that shows the impact of the rise of tenants around the world.
Lessors play a key role in the growth of the aviation industry in the years leading up to 2020, and since COVID-19 hit, they have been working closely with airlines to help them survive. The relationship is symbiotic; indeed this will come into sharper focus this year as the challenge of remarketing approaches for many lessees, with around 500 aircraft already looking for a new home.
In total, more than 200 lessees currently manage/own nearly 14,000 aircraft (jets/turboprops), fly with more than 700 airlines, and hold firm registrations for nearly 2,500 additional aircraft. The smaller ones only manage 1 or 2 planes; the largest now control hundreds of aircraft, and in the case of GECAS and AerCap, more than 1,000 each.
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Our chart shows net growth over the past 5 years in each lesson currently managing 100+ aircraft, listed from top to bottom by portfolio size (nb. excluding Boeing 'lessor', Boeing Capital). Excluding AerCap and GECAS which reduced their schedules (increasing growth in many smaller players), the 5-year net growth among these other larger players was 3,000+ aircraft (75%).
Some - notably Avolon and DAE - have accelerated growth through M&A; more of that activity is likely in 2021 and beyond.
Bringing large fleets of aircraft (especially widebody) onto the market is problematic at the best of times, let alone in today's market.
Norwegian's leased fleet of 787s peaked at 22 (making them the 2nd largest lessor of 787s worldwide), but has started to return to lessors, and is starting to find new homes.
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The global lease fleet of 787s is now close to 400 aircraft (40% of the fleet ... up from 25% of the fleet 5 years ago), clearly demonstrating the attractiveness of the 787 as an asset. Our chart details airlines that lease 5 or more 787s; less rents are bundled together.
As almost all of the 787s leased from Norwegian will return to three of the world's largest lessors (AerCap, Avolon and BOC), the availability of these lessors will help reduce the challenges of re- marketing.
More than 50 of the current 62 787 airlines lease at least part of their fleet. It is possible that, since the crisis, the opportunity for various operators to enter the fold may soon become normal. Gecas and AerCap dominate the commercial aircraft leasing industry in terms of fleet size, each carrying a portfolio of more than 1,000 aircraft. (Source: Statistics)
The $30 billion merger of aircraft leasing giants Gecas and AerCap and possible further consolidation of lessors due to Covid-19 do not seem to worry airlines and aircraft manufacturers, at least not in public.
Change Is In The Air
"My first impression of lessees is that they have remained very strong over the past year," Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury told analysts during a first-quarter earnings conference call at the company. "They have played an important role in enabling the industry to continue to move forward in a very challenging environment. It depends on the stability of the financial system. There is no financial crisis, and that is very important for us." Faury admits that Airbus believes that the consolidation of some is not so important. "There are advantages and disadvantages in this situation. But overall, I'd say, we're fine with it," he said.
Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, dismissed concerns about excessive consolidation and the potential risk of anti-competitive behavior in the charter sector. "It's still a very fragmented industry," he said, speaking to the media at a recent briefing on the impact of the pandemic on the global aviation industry. Even the combination of Gecas and AerCap Ireland - the world's largest aircraft developer by portfolio value, with a combined fleet of more than 2,000 aircraft and 500 more on order - does not represent a large percentage of supply from tenancy , he asked.
"I think the charter sector is generally competitive," Walsh said. "There are a lot of options for most if not all airlines. In fact, it's fair to say , that in many cases, lessees have been part of the solution to the cash crunch that airlines are facing through 2020 because you've seen a lot of sales and leasing activity. And in most cases, this is from my personal experience [as former CEO of International Airlines Group] at what I consider to be normal or close to normal levels. I'm not worried about the rental business at this point."
According to Cirium data, the combined fleet resulting from the proposed AerCap-Gecascombination will account for approximately 16 percent of the global passenger jet leasing portfolio and 15 percent by value. With a tenant base of 266 airline customers, the combined entity will supply aircraft to more than a quarter of the world's airlines.
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"The aircraft market is still not very concentrated and is still fragmented compared to other industries," said David Yu, a finance professor at New York University in Shanghai and chairman of China Air Valuation Advisors, a valuation consulting firm focused on aircraft in China and Asia. The top 10 aircraft developers control the market share
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